Forecasting
Risk-informed schedule and cost forecasts, expressed as P50 and P80 ranges, that give executives an honest view of the finish date and final cost.
Show leaders where the program is heading while the course can still change.
Boards ask two questions: when will it finish, and what will it cost? Too often the answer is the original plan carried forward unchanged until reality forces one large, damaging revision. That revision costs more in credibility than in dollars.
We forecast differently. Performance trends, remaining risk, productivity data and senior judgment are combined into defensible ranges with stated confidence and named drivers. Leaders see the likely outcome, the exposure around it and which levers move it. Forecasts are revisited every period, so change arrives as a series of small, explainable adjustments rather than a shock.
What we bring to Forecasting
Senior practitioners, proven method and the right technology, specified line by line.
Schedule forecasting
Finish dates informed by trend, remaining logic and risk.
INCLUDEDCost forecasting
Cost-to-complete built from commitments, performance and exposure.
INCLUDEDProbabilistic ranges
P50 and P80 outcomes from Monte Carlo risk analysis.
INCLUDEDTrend analysis
Productivity, burn rates and performance indices projected forward.
INCLUDEDScenario modeling
Outcomes compared under alternative recovery or acceleration strategies.
INCLUDEDForecast basis
A documented basis and owner for every forecast issued.
INCLUDEDA clear path, milestone by milestone.
Every engagement follows a disciplined sequence, so you always know what happens next and why.
What you receive
- RB-20208-D01Schedule and cost forecasts
- RB-20208-D02P50 and P80 forecast ranges
- RB-20208-D03Forecast basis documentation
- RB-20208-D04Trend and productivity analysis
- RB-20208-D05Scenario comparisons
- RB-20208-D06Executive forecast briefing
Technology we work in
Platform-fluent and vendor-independent. We work inside your environment, or recommend the one that fits.
What changes when we arrive.
Not activity. Results your board, your lenders and your teams can feel.
Leaders plan around what is likely, not what was hoped.
Forecast movement signaled while options remain open.
Forecasts that withstand board, auditor and lender scrutiny.
What leaders ask us first.
Straight answers. If yours isn't logged here, raise it with us directly. A principal will respond.
What is a P80 forecast?
A date or cost with an 80 percent probability of being met or bettered, based on quantified risk. It tells leaders how much confidence sits behind a number, not just the number.
How often should forecasts be refreshed?
Monthly on most programs, and more often through critical phases or after a significant event.
Does AI improve forecasting?
It can, where there is rich historical data. Models trained on past performance sharpen trend projections, but every forecast we issue is reviewed and owned by a senior analyst.
Executive Reporting
Concise, candid, decision-grade reporting for boards, executives, lenders and public stakeholders.
Project Controls Management
Schedule, cost, change, risk and reporting designed, staffed and led by RichardBarkley, running to a disciplined monthly cycle from the first period.
Program Controls
Program-level controls that bind multiple projects, contractors and funding sources into a single picture sponsors can steer by.
Command the date you announced.
Book a 45-minute program review with a senior principal. You will leave with an independent read of where your schedule and cost really stand, and the three moves that matter most.